A few weeks back, we forecasted a scenario where a mediocre XFL team could end up qualifying for the playoffs over a superior franchise due to the league’s postseason format.
That scenario played out to imperfection when the Arlington Renegades made it to the playoffs as the 2-seed in the XFL South with a 4-6 record. The 7-3 St. Louis Battlehawks did not make it to the 2023 XFL Playoffs from the North Division.
The situation was exacerbated when Arlington beat the Roughnecks in the XFL South Championship Game. Houston had beaten Arlington twice in 2023, including a lopsided 25-9 win in Week 10.
XFL Playoffs betting sites had favored the Roughnecks to win by 6 at home.
The XFL Championship Game is a week from Saturday on May 13th. San Antonio’s Alamodome will host the 5-6 Arlington Renegades, who will face the 11-1 DC Defenders, a team that rolled through the league in 2023.
The current XFL Championship odds suggest that the Defenders will win by 6.5 points, but after last weekend, we’re hesitant to hop on that betting line.
2023 XFL Championship Game Betting Line
Arlington Renegades vs. DC Defenders
- Renegades Point Spread: +6.5
- Renegades Moneyline Odds To Win: +210
- Defenders Point Spread: -6.5
- Defenders Moneyline Odds To Win: -250
- Over-Under: 46.5
The above over/under total and point spread project out to a final score of:
DC Defenders 26.5
Arlington Renegades 20
Online XFL Championship Game sportsbooks were offering futures odds of +1000 or more on the Renegades winning a championship just a few days ago. Now, the moneyline odds for Arlington to win are set at +210 and will deliver payouts of $3.10 on bets of $1.
Wagers placed prior to last weekend’s XFL Playoff games on championship futures for the Renegades would have paid out at no less than 10-to-1.
The XFL futures for DC were set at between +115 and +120 before their North Division Championship Game win against the Seattle Sea Dragons. Today, gamblers will have to wager $2.50 just to gain a dollar on a Defenders championship.
San Antonio’s Alamodome will host the 2023 XFL Championship Game. Should bettors be wary of the home-field advantage for the Renegades?
Arlington is only 280 miles from San Antonio, so more blue than red can be expected in the stands.
There’s also the up-and-down play of the Renegades that makes it tough to bet on the Defenders. In Week 10, Arlington lost to Houston by 16 points. The following weekend, they beat the same team by 15.
The lone inconsistency on DC’s 2023 schedule is a loss to the Orlando Guardians. It was the Guardians’ only win of the season.
The 2023 XFL Championship Game begins on ABC at 8 PM on May 13th.
Sources: XFL Schedule, Bovada.LV (Bovada Sportsbook Review)