The 2026 UFL regular season is in the books, and the playoff bracket has narrowed the league’s championship race to four teams: the Orlando Storm, St. Louis BattleHawks, Louisville Kings, and DC Defenders.
Orlando enters as the clear regular-season standard-bearer after an 8-2 campaign, while St. Louis and Louisville both finished 6-4, and DC grabbed the final playoff spot at 5-5. Now, the league’s postseason moves into a two-game semifinal slate on Sunday, June 7, followed by the UFL Championship Game on Saturday, June 13.
The first semifinal kicks off at 3 p.m. ET, with the DC Defenders facing the Orlando Storm. The game will not be played at Orlando’s usual home, Inter&Co Stadium.
Orlando’s playoff hosting situation became one of the biggest storylines of the postseason after the league first announced the game would be moved to a neutral site in Columbus, Ohio, because Inter&Co Stadium was unavailable due to international soccer commitments.
After backlash and continued venue searching, the UFL pivoted again and announced the game would instead be played at Daytona Stadium in Daytona Beach, keeping the matchup much closer to Orlando’s fan base.
The second semifinal follows at 6 p.m. ET, with the Louisville Kings visiting the St. Louis BattleHawks at The Dome at America’s Center. St. Louis gets the true home-field edge in that matchup, but Louisville comes in with one of the league’s most dangerous offenses and plenty of momentum after a strong finish.
DC Defenders vs. Orlando Storm
Point Spread: Defenders +3.5 (-110), Storm -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline Odds: Defenders +155. Storm -180
Over: 47.5 (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
Orlando is favored for a reason. The Storm finished 8-2, swept DC in the final two weeks of the regular season, and has shown the most complete profile in the league. Their defense has been steady, their offense has been consistent enough to win different kinds of games, and the relocation to Daytona is a much better outcome than a neutral-site trip to Ohio would have been.
That said, this is not a normal home game. The Storm still loses some of the comfort and routine that would have come with playing at Inter&Co Stadium, and DC is talented enough to make this uncomfortable. The Defenders led the league in points scored among playoff teams, and their 281 regular-season points show they can trade scores with anyone.
The concern is that DC also gave up more points than Orlando, St. Louis, or Louisville, and it has already failed twice recently to solve this Storm matchup.
From a betting standpoint, Orlando -3.5 is playable, but the hook matters. The stronger angle is Orlando on the moneyline at -180 for bettors who want to avoid a close-game spread sweat. Overall, 47.5 is high, but these teams combined for 46 and 52 points in their two late-season meetings, making the over viable if DC’s offense starts fast.
Prediction: Orlando 27, DC 21
Best Bet: Bet on the DC Defenders to cover the 3.5 points.
Louisville Kings vs. St. Louis BattleHawks
Point Spread: Kings +2.5 (EVEN), BattleHawks -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline Odds: Kings +125, BattleHawks -145
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
This is the more interesting betting matchup. St. Louis has the home-field advantage and already beat Louisville 16-3 earlier in the season, but that result came during a lower-scoring stretch. Louisville’s offense was a different animal late in the year, closing with 37 points against Dallas and 42 against Columbus. The Kings also finished with 265 points scored, second among playoff teams behind DC.
St. Louis, meanwhile, has the Dome, the crowd, and a defense that can turn games into slower, more physical contests. The BattleHawks allowed only 197 points during the regular season, fewer than both Louisville and DC. The problem is offensive consistency. St. Louis lost two of its final three games and scored only 16 points in both of those defeats.
The spread is tight enough that the moneyline may be the cleaner play. St. Louis deserves to be favored at home, but Louisville’s recent form makes the Kings a live underdog. At +125, Louisville offers better betting value than laying -145 with a BattleHawks team that has not been firing offensively.
The total at 46.5 depends on pace. If Louisville dictates the game, it can go over. If St. Louis controls it, the under is in play. Given Louisville’s recent scoring surge, the over gets a slight lean.
Prediction: Louisville 26, St. Louis 23
Best Bet: Louisville moneyline at +125 is the XFLBetting.com lock of the week
Championship Game Winner
- Orlando Storm +165
- St. Louis BattleHawks +250
- Louisville Kings +300
- DC Defenders +450
Orlando is the rightful favorite. The Storm had the best record, the best point differential among the playoff teams, and the most reliable week-to-week profile. They also have the most favorable semifinal setup, even with the relocation drama, because Daytona keeps the game in Florida and avoids a true neutral-site disadvantage.
St. Louis at +250 is understandable, given that the BattleHawks get a home semifinal and have already handled Louisville once. But the futures price is not especially attractive if the likely championship path requires beating a red-hot Louisville team and then possibly Orlando.
Louisville at +300 is the best value on the board. The Kings have the offense to win two straight games, and if they upset St. Louis, they would likely enter the championship as a dangerous underdog rather than a long shot. DC at +450 has the biggest payout, but the Defenders’ path is the toughest.
They must beat an Orlando team that just beat them twice, then win another game against a top-two opponent. The most likely championship matchup is Orlando vs. Louisville. Orlando is the safest pick to win the title, but Louisville offers the better odds-based value.
Projected Championship Matchup: Orlando Storm vs. Louisville Kings
Projected Champion: Orlando Storm